Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022026 260608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.3  40.8  40.8  36.5  26.4  26.4  26.4  26.4 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  32.0  31.0  28.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  71.0  21.0  11.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0  F  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       11.1%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        4.0%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP022026 260608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.3  40.8  40.8  36.5  26.4  26.4  26.4  26.4 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%