Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.6  47.1  46.0  41.5  31.2  22.5  20.4  14.2 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  18.0  21.0  22.0  24.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  85.0  94.0  86.0  92.0 106.0 124.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  84.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        8.0%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 EP032026 260608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.6  47.1  46.0  41.5  31.2  22.5  20.4  14.2 VF VF VF VF  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  84.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%