Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.5  43.7  41.1  36.2  23.0  17.5  20.2  10.1 VU VU VU  U  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  24.0  26.0  27.0  28.0  28.0  26.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  79.0 102.0  52.0 114.0 115.0 110.0 168.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  84.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        0.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        6.0%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        7.2%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        4.2%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%       13.2%        9.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP032026 260608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.5  43.7  41.1  36.2  23.0  17.5  20.2  10.1 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  84.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%