Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260609 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.1  37.2  28.7  23.7  22.0  17.3  19.6  11.9 VU  U  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  29.0  30.0  30.0  31.0  27.0  23.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  95.0  98.0  88.0  76.0 137.0 125.0 118.0  N  F  F  F  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        4.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%        9.2%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 EP032026 260609 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.1  37.2  28.7  23.7  22.0  17.3  19.6  11.9 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  82.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%