Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  21.0  17.9  17.2  15.9  22.7  22.7  22.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  33.0  33.0  32.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  47.0  47.0  50.0 101.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  78.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       13.0%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       16.3%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        4.9%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%       12.1%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       16.5%       14.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP032026 260609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  21.0  17.9  17.2  15.9  22.7  22.7  22.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  78.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%