Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260609 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  21.4  19.0  14.6  21.0  19.1  19.1  19.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  31.0  33.0  32.0  30.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  44.0  29.0  74.0  79.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       23.1%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       10.7%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       10.2%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        9.8%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       27.4%       17.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%       10.6%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       17.8%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        8.9%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%       24.0%       17.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 EP032026 260609 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  21.4  19.0  14.6  21.0  19.1  19.1  19.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%