Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  16.2  20.7  21.4  19.9  19.9  19.9  19.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  29.0  27.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  63.0  31.0  61.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       24.1%       15.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%       12.2%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%       11.9%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       11.5%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       25.7%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%       10.7%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%       18.5%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        9.0%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%       24.0%       16.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP032026 260610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  16.2  20.7  21.4  19.9  19.9  19.9  19.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%