Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032026 260610 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  19.9  21.2  18.1  22.2  22.2  22.2  22.2  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  28.0  28.0  25.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  12.0  65.0 106.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  U  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       11.8%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       11.8%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        8.8%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%       10.8%        7.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP032026 260610 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  19.9  21.2  18.1  22.2  22.2  22.2  22.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%