Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042026 260701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  21.0  26.1  29.3  26.8  27.1  23.8  26.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   7.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  89.6  89.6  79.4  71.7  63.8  56.8  50.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  79.0  98.0  92.0  58.0  54.0  38.0  43.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  63.0  58.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        0.2%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.20

 EP042026 260701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.