Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042026 260701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  28.0  31.4  28.3  26.8  28.2  32.6  36.5  F  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  89.6  79.4  79.4  70.5  63.8  56.8  55.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 130.0  98.0  70.0  83.0  40.0  20.0  39.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  57.0  44.0  36.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        0.2%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.06

 EP042026 260701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.