Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042026 260701 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 126.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 34.1 27.5 25.7 27.8 36.2 37.3 40.6 N U N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 74.4 66.7 65.5 58.8 51.8 46.6 46.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 134.0 98.0 59.0 75.0 68.0 38.0 15.0 2.0 VF F N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 65.0 62.0 55.0 44.0 38.0 33.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 4.2% 0.0% 2.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.28 EP042026 260701 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 126.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.