Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042026 260702 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 29.7 26.5 29.2 30.9 36.9 41.8 47.6 U N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 65.5 65.5 58.8 50.9 46.6 46.6 42.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 97.0 67.0 67.0 82.0 26.0 23.0 0.0 9.0 F N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 65.0 62.0 59.0 49.0 44.0 37.0 33.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 8.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.86 EP042026 260702 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.