Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042026 260703 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 127.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 37.8 43.5 44.9 54.2 57.1 63.3 64.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.8 51.8 47.4 47.4 42.6 39.7 39.1 37.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 34.0 14.0 22.0 11.0 9.0 -14.0 15.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 48.0 46.0 40.0 36.0 35.0 37.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.34 EP042026 260703 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 127.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.