Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    109.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  15.2  11.9  12.3  15.4  22.4  20.8  20.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  35.0  40.0  29.0  16.0  16.0  25.0   8.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 127.3 125.1 125.1 116.5 110.5  96.0  82.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  56.0  53.0  45.0 105.0 121.0  88.0  73.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -10.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0   9.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       29.4%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%       16.0%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%       15.3%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       12.9%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       41.1%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       22.5%       13.0%
 55kt / 48h       21.4%        9.0%       15.2%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%       17.2%       13.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.7%       20.8%       16.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 EP052026 260715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    109.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  15.2  11.9  12.3  15.4  22.4  20.8  20.2  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  69.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -10.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0   9.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%