Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  12.3  13.6  15.2  21.3  25.7  21.8  14.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  39.0  26.0  19.0  15.0  23.0  15.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 125.1 125.1 116.5 112.4  96.0  82.2  71.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  48.0  78.0  93.0  98.0  96.0  72.0  64.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0   3.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       20.4%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        9.4%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        8.3%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        7.7%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       25.5%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%       10.6%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       20.2%        8.3%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%        7.4%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        9.7%        9.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP052026 260715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  12.3  13.6  15.2  21.3  25.7  21.8  14.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%