Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.1  16.9  17.3  23.4  20.7  20.1  21.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  20.0  19.0  17.0  25.0  17.0   6.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 106.5 106.5 102.4  86.0  73.6  61.7  52.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  57.0 117.0 109.0 111.0  99.0  71.0 -16.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  57.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        7.4%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       33.2%       24.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       19.4%       14.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       19.4%       11.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       17.3%       10.7%
 45kt / 36h       10.7%       39.4%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.6%       21.3%       14.0%
 55kt / 48h       27.8%       13.6%       20.7%
 70kt / 48h       13.6%       11.0%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        6.8%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP052026 260715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.1  16.9  17.3  23.4  20.7  20.1  21.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  57.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%