Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.8  21.3  23.6  25.0  18.2  16.2  19.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  21.0  24.0  20.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5  88.0  84.4  77.7  64.4  47.7  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0 135.0 113.0  96.0  69.0  96.0  12.0  14.0  N VF  F  F  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0   3.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        8.9%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       28.8%       22.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       18.0%       12.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       18.0%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       13.8%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       30.5%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       15.3%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%        9.4%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.4%        7.0%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 EP052026 260715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.