Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260717 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  19.7  13.1  11.4  15.2  26.0  31.1  37.2  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  17.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.0  67.7  58.6  57.2  45.5  30.9  20.4  17.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 102.0  97.0  59.0  24.0  86.0  32.0  26.0  F  F  F  N  U  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  68.0  62.0  52.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  14.0  18.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.3%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%        9.5%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.5%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        4.9%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.28

 EP052026 260717 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.