Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.2  10.6  13.9  18.0  23.3  32.2  35.2  39.5  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.2  57.2  46.7  45.5  30.9  20.4  14.6  11.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  76.0  43.0  42.0  88.0  32.0  57.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  68.0  65.0  58.0  48.0  40.0  35.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  10.0  14.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.5%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.40

 EP052026 260717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.