Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  13.7  19.5  21.7  28.5  29.2  38.2  32.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.4  54.4  45.5  36.7  30.0  19.7  15.2  11.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  61.0  53.0  63.0  67.0  -8.0   3.0  27.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  63.0  62.0  52.0  44.0  36.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   8.0   7.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.12

 EP052026 260717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.