Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.7  20.0  23.7  31.2  34.0  36.1  34.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.8  46.7  37.7  31.8  25.0  17.7  13.4  11.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  49.0  34.0  45.0  20.0  29.0  14.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  48.0  43.0  39.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   7.0  13.0  14.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.64

 EP052026 260718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.