Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052026 260718 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 122.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 20.6 24.5 28.3 31.6 36.1 33.5 41.1 N N N N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.7 38.8 37.7 31.8 21.2 15.2 11.7 7.7 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 48.0 39.0 72.0 13.0 11.0 -7.0 -3.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 63.0 56.0 48.0 42.0 38.0 32.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 15.0 17.0 13.0 15.0 N N N U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.36 EP052026 260718 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 122.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.