Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052026 260718 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 24.7 28.2 28.4 35.4 37.4 38.1 39.1 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.8 26.8 20.8 20.0 10.2 6.2 2.2 -1.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 41.0 71.0 21.0 47.0 42.0 13.0 7.0 N N N U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 58.0 56.0 50.0 47.0 41.0 38.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 8.0 10.0 14.0 20.0 17.0 22.0 7.0 N U U U VU U VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.54 EP052026 260718 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.