Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052026 260718 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  28.9  29.8  32.6  38.7  33.1  39.7  33.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.8  20.8  20.0  16.2   7.8   4.6   0.5  -3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  67.0  14.0  25.0   7.0  18.0  10.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  38.0  38.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  12.0  15.0  21.0  20.0  24.0  14.0   4.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.0%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.98

 EP052026 260718 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.