Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052026 260719 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 33.3 35.0 35.7 34.1 37.3 42.3 49.4 N U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.2 22.7 20.2 18.4 13.7 8.5 4.3 2.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 29.0 52.0 12.0 23.0 30.0 -1.0 -20.0 U N N U U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 47.0 48.0 44.0 42.0 38.0 33.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 19.0 9.0 -5.0 -14.0 VU VU VU VU VU U F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.70 EP052026 260719 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.