Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052026 260720 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.90 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 34.2 35.7 40.6 38.6 46.4 52.3 52.3 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 24.0 20.7 18.7 15.5 12.0 8.2 7.3 7.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 32.0 7.0 -5.0 -4.0 -9.0 18.0 18.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 43.0 40.0 36.0 38.0 32.0 28.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 21.0 25.0 16.0 6.0 -3.0 -11.0 -11.0 VU VU VU U N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.38 EP052026 260720 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.