Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  23.6  21.0  18.0  14.0  15.7  22.7  18.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  22.0  13.0  13.0  19.0  15.0  15.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0 125.1 110.5  97.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  71.0  85.0  71.0 155.0 217.0 152.0 108.0  N  N  F  N VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  87.0  83.0  79.0  77.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0 -10.0  -3.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       27.9%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       13.3%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%       13.3%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       13.0%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%       39.3%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       19.4%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.4%       28.7%       22.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       23.7%       14.9%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       37.5%       27.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP062026 260719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  23.6  21.0  18.0  14.0  15.7  22.7  18.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  87.0  83.0  79.0  77.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0 -10.0  -3.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%