Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260719 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 25.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 17.8 17.8 19.3 13.8 19.7 19.8 15.2 N F F N F N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 13.0 15.0 19.0 19.0 17.0 23.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 134.3 132.0 132.0 125.1 112.4 97.7 94.3 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 78.0 64.0 104.0 185.0 172.0 119.0 76.0 N N N F VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 87.0 88.0 83.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 VF F VF VF F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 -6.0 3.0 F N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 6.3% 20.8% 13.6% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 8.9% 5.9% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 8.9% 4.9% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 8.9% 4.9% 45kt / 36h 9.7% 32.7% 21.2% 55kt / 36h 4.2% 14.3% 9.3% 55kt / 48h 19.8% 17.9% 18.9% 70kt / 48h 8.0% 15.6% 11.8% 65kt / 72h 17.7% 26.0% 21.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 EP062026 260719 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 17.8 17.8 19.3 13.8 19.7 19.8 15.2 N N N N U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 87.0 88.0 83.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 VU U VU VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 -6.0 3.0 U N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%