Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260719 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 18.5 18.0 12.8 17.7 21.6 18.9 16.5 F N F F F N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 13.0 17.0 21.0 15.0 19.0 25.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 134.3 134.3 132.0 132.0 116.5 110.5 97.7 92.7 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 81.0 94.0 146.0 160.0 218.0 114.0 110.0 78.0 N F VF VF VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 88.0 88.0 86.0 83.0 80.0 76.0 74.0 F VF VF F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -5.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 F N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 9.9% 32.2% 21.0% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 16.1% 9.7% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 16.1% 8.6% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 15.3% 8.2% 45kt / 36h 11.9% 42.1% 27.0% 55kt / 36h 4.4% 20.1% 12.2% 55kt / 48h 20.4% 19.9% 20.1% 70kt / 48h 8.1% 17.0% 12.5% 65kt / 72h 19.1% 26.5% 22.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 EP062026 260719 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 18.5 18.0 12.8 17.7 21.6 18.9 16.5 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 88.0 88.0 86.0 83.0 80.0 76.0 74.0 U VU VU U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -5.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 U N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%