Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260719 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 18.0 13.4 15.0 23.1 17.4 19.9 20.1 N F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 15.0 22.0 19.0 16.0 23.0 19.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.3 127.0 127.0 120.1 107.4 92.7 89.3 87.7 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 112.0 131.0 154.0 206.0 144.0 98.0 79.0 107.0 F F VF VF VF F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 88.0 87.0 84.0 81.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 VF VF VF F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -6.0 6.0 0.0 N F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 4.0% 2.9% 25kt / 24h 21.3% 44.9% 33.1% 30kt / 24h 9.0% 27.6% 18.3% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 27.6% 15.5% 40kt / 24h 2.8% 27.3% 15.0% 45kt / 36h 14.8% 46.5% 30.7% 55kt / 36h 5.5% 24.0% 14.8% 55kt / 48h 21.7% 8.9% 15.3% 70kt / 48h 8.9% 18.7% 13.8% 65kt / 72h 11.7% 22.0% 16.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.28 EP062026 260719 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 18.0 13.4 15.0 23.1 17.4 19.9 20.1 N N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 88.0 87.0 84.0 81.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 VU VU VU U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -6.0 6.0 0.0 N U U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%