Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260720 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 114.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 20.1 20.6 20.8 22.0 19.3 19.3 23.9 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 14.0 14.0 13.0 17.0 19.0 14.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.3 119.6 119.6 112.9 98.5 84.3 81.1 79.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 136.0 136.0 178.0 181.0 94.0 74.0 34.0 73.0 VF VF VF VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 84.0 85.0 80.0 78.0 75.0 71.0 VF F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -6.0 -6.0 -4.0 -11.0 1.0 7.0 4.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.0% 6.3% 6.2% 25kt / 24h 27.6% 45.7% 36.6% 30kt / 24h 13.5% 30.1% 21.8% 35kt / 24h 6.8% 30.1% 18.4% 40kt / 24h 6.8% 30.1% 18.4% 45kt / 36h 16.3% 41.8% 29.1% 55kt / 36h 6.5% 20.9% 13.7% 55kt / 48h 19.4% 7.6% 13.5% 70kt / 48h 7.6% 14.6% 11.1% 65kt / 72h 3.4% 12.9% 8.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.22 EP062026 260720 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 114.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 20.1 20.6 20.8 22.0 19.3 19.3 23.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 84.0 85.0 80.0 78.0 75.0 71.0 VU U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -6.0 -6.0 -4.0 -11.0 1.0 7.0 4.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%