Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260720 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.0  20.9  21.4  22.1  19.5  19.5  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  13.0  14.0  20.0  17.0   9.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 114.6 107.9  97.4  82.7  77.7  76.1  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   138.0 178.0 170.0  96.0  68.0  51.0  73.0  37.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  -9.0  -7.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        5.9%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       21.4%       34.4%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       20.3%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       20.3%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       20.3%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       25.4%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       10.3%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        3.8%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        6.1%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        5.4%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP062026 260720 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.0  20.9  21.4  22.1  19.5  19.5  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  -9.0  -7.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%