Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  20.1  19.6  18.4  21.0  16.8  23.0  20.4  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  14.0  16.0  18.0  14.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 102.9 100.7  92.4  74.3  71.1  59.4  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   173.0 152.0  95.0  96.0 102.0  72.0  66.0  19.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  83.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        8.3%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.1%       42.9%       35.5%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       31.1%       23.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       31.1%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       29.0%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h       14.5%       35.6%       25.1%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%       17.4%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%        5.6%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        9.3%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        5.7%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 EP062026 260720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  20.1  19.6  18.4  21.0  16.8  23.0  20.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  83.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%