Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  20.2  22.7  22.2  17.7  21.0  19.4  19.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  16.0  21.0  18.0   9.0   6.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  89.4  87.4  72.7  67.7  55.8  54.4  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   158.0 123.0 109.0 132.0  81.0  71.0  57.0  25.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  83.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0 -10.0  -7.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        9.6%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.2%       35.7%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       26.1%       19.8%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       26.1%       17.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.7%       21.5%       14.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.1%       31.9%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       15.5%       10.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%        4.8%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.48

 EP062026 260720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.