Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260721 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 22.0 20.4 14.6 18.4 22.2 19.6 21.3 N N N F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 15.0 19.0 23.0 17.0 8.0 7.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.9 77.4 73.5 62.7 57.7 45.8 44.4 43.0 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 114.0 89.0 95.0 76.0 56.0 65.0 41.0 37.0 F F F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 82.0 80.0 79.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 70.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -10.0 -6.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 13.0 F F F N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.3% 18.9% 25.6% 25kt / 24h 41.7% 47.5% 44.6% 30kt / 24h 27.6% 43.2% 35.4% 35kt / 24h 27.6% 43.2% 35.4% 40kt / 24h 15.0% 38.9% 27.0% 45kt / 36h 18.7% 37.1% 27.9% 55kt / 36h 10.5% 20.9% 15.7% 55kt / 48h 13.0% 5.1% 9.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 EP062026 260721 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.