Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  18.1  15.0  15.4  19.3  18.3  21.0  18.4  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  22.0  24.0  20.0  12.0   5.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.4  57.7  57.7  54.3  42.2  40.8  38.0  29.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  77.0  58.0  67.0  66.0  44.0   4.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   5.0  15.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.6%        7.2%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       17.7%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.1%       12.2%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%       12.2%       11.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       11.1%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       10.8%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.90

 EP062026 260721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.