Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  12.6  14.7  15.6  18.1  17.1  18.5  19.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  23.0  19.0  15.0   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.7  59.3  59.3  50.0  45.8  44.4  34.3  33.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  77.0  52.0  58.0  82.0  40.0  46.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        2.2%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        5.6%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.2%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.1%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        3.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 EP062026 260721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.