Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  11.8  13.7  14.6  15.4  18.8  17.0  19.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  17.0  12.0   8.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.3  50.0  50.0  47.2  45.8  34.3  34.3  33.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  43.0  67.0  61.0  40.0   6.0  34.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 EP062026 260721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.