Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    120.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  14.7  14.2  13.6  16.1  17.5  21.4  23.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  16.0  10.0   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.0  54.3  42.2  40.8  40.8  39.4  28.2  28.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  67.0  45.0  30.0  17.0  44.0  32.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  12.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%        7.8%       10.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       12.4%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%        9.9%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        9.1%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%        6.5%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 EP062026 260722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    120.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.