Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  15.6  14.5  17.9  19.7  20.2  21.4  23.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  42.2  40.8  40.8  30.5  28.2  28.2  22.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  44.0  30.0  19.0  44.0  41.0   5.0 -27.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  57.0  52.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  10.0  10.0  13.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        1.7%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.78

 EP062026 260722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.