Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260724 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 127.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 19.2 20.3 21.4 23.1 24.8 23.8 28.3 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 20.5 19.3 18.2 19.3 12.7 13.8 17.0 15.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 19.0 22.0 0.0 -53.0 -22.0 19.0 5.0 U U U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 59.0 58.0 50.0 47.0 42.0 36.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 13.0 12.0 10.0 5.0 7.0 4.0 6.0 U U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.62 EP062026 260724 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 127.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.