Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260724 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 22.7 25.9 24.2 22.6 24.8 25.2 24.1 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 9.3 8.2 2.7 3.8 5.9 4.8 9.3 12.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 -37.0 -34.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 6.0 15.0 U VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 51.0 44.0 41.0 38.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 -1.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.34 EP062026 260724 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.