Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062026 260725 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 133.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 25.3 23.4 22.1 23.8 29.9 27.3 28.4 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 8.2 2.7 3.8 4.8 7.0 10.5 10.5 15.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -34.0 -31.0 11.0 0.0 8.0 -4.0 9.0 19.0 VU VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 53.0 53.0 47.0 41.0 39.0 36.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.28 EP062026 260725 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 133.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.