Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    145.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  27.1  33.7  41.2  38.2  50.0  46.6  53.3  N  N  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   5.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.9  34.2  35.4  36.7  38.0  42.2  43.6  49.6 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -14.0   5.0  27.0  -1.0   5.0 -33.0 -17.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  36.0  36.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.00

 EP062026 260727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    145.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.