Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  43.3  45.1  42.7  49.7  48.5  53.5  51.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  14.0  16.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.7  45.4  49.4  49.4  52.2  53.6  59.6  61.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  31.0  -2.0  -5.0  19.0  -1.0 -32.0  -3.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  38.0  36.0  32.0  34.0  35.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.22

 EP062026 260728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.