Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    149.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.7  45.8  40.6  44.7  50.4  51.8  52.7  52.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  21.0  20.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.4  54.4  54.4  55.8  57.2  63.0  64.6  67.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0   3.0   7.0   5.0  -1.0 -22.0 -23.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  35.0  31.0  32.0  33.0  37.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.32

 EP062026 260728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    149.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.