Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    151.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.3  38.8  45.6  52.6  47.6  56.0  50.8  46.9 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  17.0  15.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  59.4  60.8  62.2  66.5  69.6  72.7  74.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  12.0  20.0   7.0 -16.0   5.0 -36.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  31.0  34.0  39.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   6.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.46

 EP062026 260728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    151.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.