Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062026 260728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    151.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  45.9  52.3  52.9  51.4  53.9  51.6  41.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  19.0  14.0   7.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4  64.4  65.8  67.2  71.5  74.6  74.6  77.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   2.0   5.0 -11.0  39.0 -20.0 -10.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  31.0  36.0  40.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.44

 EP062026 260728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    151.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.