Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072026 260724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.90     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.7  20.9  18.6  12.7  12.0  14.5  18.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  11.0  17.0  13.0  15.0  16.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 104.0  88.0 132.0 189.0 119.0  73.0  66.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.9%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       30.6%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%       14.8%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       14.8%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       14.8%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.5%       46.3%       30.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       23.0%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       28.1%       37.0%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%       28.7%       20.4%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       51.0%       43.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 EP072026 260724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.90     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.7  20.9  18.6  12.7  12.0  14.5  18.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%