Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072026 260724 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.00 101.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 22.7 21.4 18.8 13.9 13.3 16.6 19.3 N N N N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 11.0 16.0 18.0 15.0 15.0 27.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 111.5 F F F F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 92.0 130.0 150.0 168.0 56.0 74.0 47.0 F F F VF VF N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 72.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 74.0 71.0 N N N N N F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -7.0 -7.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 N F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.3% 6.0% 5.2% 25kt / 24h 23.1% 47.2% 35.2% 30kt / 24h 11.2% 31.2% 21.2% 35kt / 24h 6.3% 31.2% 18.7% 40kt / 24h 4.4% 31.2% 17.8% 45kt / 36h 25.3% 62.1% 43.7% 55kt / 36h 10.8% 41.1% 25.9% 55kt / 48h 26.6% 46.9% 36.8% 70kt / 48h 11.3% 40.2% 25.8% 65kt / 72h 23.0% 52.7% 37.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 EP072026 260724 18UTC Storm Located at : 9.00 101.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 22.7 21.4 18.8 13.9 13.3 16.6 19.3 N N N N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 72.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 74.0 71.0 N N N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -7.0 -7.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 N U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%